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Why our $6.4 billion rail cost is
right:
Here’s why we believe that our estimate of $6.4
billion is a better estimate than the City’s $4.62 billion for the full corridor
alignment (both include 33 percent allowances for cost overruns and
contingencies).
First, we looked at the Miami Metrorail, which is
the only other U.S. modern elevated rail line. We
took the cost, increased it for inflation using the same Construction Cost Index
that the city uses, and from that arrived at a cost per mile. We then adjusted
the cost up 36 percent for Hawaii vs. Florida costs and multiplied the result by the 28 miles of
the proposed Honolulu line. That amounts to $6.18 billion.
Since this calculation was based on actual cost, we did not need to add an
allowance for cost overruns.
Second, we took Honolulu’s 1992 rail cost in the Final
Environmental Impact Statement, which appears to be almost identical to the city
administration’s proposed route, but with the addition of Waikele to Kapolei. We
then adjusted the cost for inflation using the same Construction Cost Index as
the city, divided it by the route miles to arrive at a cost per mile in current
dollars. We then multiplied it the length of the “full corridor alignment.” We
then added the same 33 percent allowance for contingencies and cost overruns
that the city uses. The final total is $6.4 billion.
We could average these two but with public works
projects, better you pick the one that is slightly higher.
The above is the short version. For a more detailed explanation of all the costs READ MORE
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